Round 12 of the 2014 AFL season looks like a fairly easily one for tipsters, with a number of dominant favourites taking the field, but recent history as shown that there is generally an upset on such a weekend.
The Brisbane Lions produced the upset of the round last weekend when they defeated Carlton, while the Greater Western Sydney Giants almost knocked off defending premiers Hawthorn.
Our team of sports betting experts have run the rule over every game this weekend to try and find an upset at big odds for punters.
Friday – Geelong Cats vs Carlton Blues
Both teams will be desperate to bounce back from poor showings last weekend; with Geelong flogged by the Sydney Swans, while the Blues suffered a most disappointing loss to the Brisbane Lions.
It is rare for Geelong to produce poor back-to-back performances and they have won nine of the past 11 clashes between these two sides as well as all nine of their meetings at Etihad Stadium.
Carlton have generally been outclassed taking on top teams during the 2014 AFL season and they showed nothing last week that indicates they are capable of playing finals football.
The Tip: Geelong by 45
The Bet: Geelong to beat the spread (-29.5 at Ladbrokes.com.au)
Saturday – Western Bulldogs vs Brisbane Lions
This could be the most competitive fixture of the round and it will be interesting to see how the Lions respond after scoring a memorable win over the Blues last weekend.
The Western Bulldogs have lost their past two, after having plenty of opportunities against Fremantle last weekend, but generally win when they are expected to and are rated short priced favourites heading into this clash.
While Brisbane may not be good enough to score their second straight victory, this should be a far closer game than betting indicates and the Lions are a good bet to beat the spread for the second week in a row.
The Tip: Western Bulldogs by 10
The Bet: Brisbane to beat the spread (+19.5 at Ladbrokes.com.au)
Sunday – North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Richmond Tigers
The Richmond Tigers produced a disgraceful effort against Essendon last weekend and it does not get any easier for the under pressure side against North Melbourne this weekend.
This is a danger game for North Melbourne, having scored a strong win away from home against the West Coast Eagles last weekend, but it is difficult to see the Tigers getting close to this talented side based on their performance last season.
Betting against the Tigers has been a profitable play all season and there is no reason why this will not continue this weekend.
The Tip: North Melbourne by 38
The Bet: North Melbourne to beat the spread (-21.5 at Ladbrokes.com.au)
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